Startling revelations have emerged from the recently conducted Opinion Poll nationwide. The poll conducted from Monday 18th -21st February revealed interesting hitherto unknown factors that turned out costly and likely undoing to the PDP candidate challenge to the presidency. They are: betrayal factor, the slippery nature of Nigerian politics and the absence of strong political Institutions; these were the immediate fallouts from the massively conducted public opinion poll which featured not less than 1,500 field officers across the 36 States of the federation. The poll looked at many crucial areas considered as Buhari's albatross: Nepotism(lopsided appointments to a particular ethnic group); displacement of federal character principle which appears to have placed a wedge between major political players in the south against his administration; his perceived chronic marginalisation which has equally attracted mistrust between the South and the North; dearth of Infrastructural developments as well as the incessant killings in the country. The poll found out that although these were strong factors that resonated negatively against Buhari's chances, the presence of formidable political structures on the ground was the determinant factor. The poll found out that although 65% of the respondents in Imo, Delta, Rivers States were critical against the Buhari administration, the possibility of discord counted against them. In Benue and Plateau States the strong nature of the All Progressive Congress machinery proved persuasive. The poll result showed much internal discord which is likely to prove costly for the major challenger. The poll result that in Rivers State the election may be strewn with crisis which may also prove costly. Using the yardstick of the level of poverty bedevilling the land and hunger, the poll result surprisingly found out that this did not make an impression on 51% of Nigerians! By far the most astonishing revelation was that party leaders across the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) turned out to be unreliable. 55% of the poll result pointed to many of them indulging in horse trading! Another poll result confirmed 45% of Nigerians affirming the power of incumbency on the outcome of the elections. More importantly, 45% of Nigerians thought Buhari should continue and simply finish his second term in office. The reason adduced is that this will allow for smooth power transition and rotation. 40%, however, did not see any reason why PDP should not be victorious. The remaining 15% were rather unconcerned who wins or not. The bulk of those who favour Buhari's continuity in office in order to stave off a situation where PDP will rule for the next 8years thus shortchanging their chances are from the South West region. In fact, the poll results showed-65% of them are likely to vote for Buhari's return. Besides, the poll result showed a strong Buhari's factor on the Nigerian State and that his influence has only waned on the pages of the newspapers! 50% of Nigerians believe that "money factor" although underplayed this time was likely to swing voters in favour of Buhari. 55% of Nigerians feel money has been exchanging hands between crucial players which in turn are the determinant keys to Buhari's return to the office! 45% of the respondents across the board believe that the presence of International observers will count for little as Nigeria is as much a sovereign State as it were. Thus it was found out that the decisive criteria which proved vital for Buhari's victory are no less the incumbency factor, the betrayal level, tenure elongation as did the presence of weak political structures. The individual Nigerian is as yet not in the position to influence elections because of lack of money, as well as any real defence against strong security interference. The poll result also found out that fear factor accounts for 35% of major decisions of intending voters. They were really undecided. Thus as it is, the poll outcome in Buhari's strongholds North East and North West where he has a combined voting power of 31,447.393 registered voters, they were largely intact. His cult-like image in these areas will allow him to maintain superiority. In North Central where the PDP candidate is strong(13,366,0700), Buhari will still make a strong presence according to 25% of respondents. Both of them being Muslims will allow for many of the voters to vote in favour of incumbency says 45% of them in that region. The PDP candidate is certain to poll 90% of the Christian votes apparently according to 45% of respondents. But in the South-South and the South West, the Osiomoledestructive factor will count for less as against the persuasive power of money. 40% of respondents feel Buhari will split the votes here. The South-South and the South East is the battleground but with registered voters of 12,841,279 and 10,057,130 respectively, the rancorous nature of the Governors is likely to deliver the required percentages to Buhari. By and large, the poll result also showed that although the PDP proved formidable and are intellectually strong, the APC is more aggressive and streetwise which is their strongest weapon. 55% of respondents believe that the elections will be free and fair and peaceful while 35% believe that there would be no bloodshed. Only 10% believe that there will be ballot box snatching. In another poll result, 55% respondents believe that Saraki still maintains cult figure in Kwara State and is likely to be returned while in Edo Ste, the poll result showed 45% of respondents giving the State to the PDP. In Lagos State contrary to the political events of the last few months 55% of Lagosians still favour the APC and a return for Buhari. Collation of figures for this Opinion Poll was handled by over 1,500 researchers across the 36 States with minimal constraints. The poll results were intended for theoretical purposes but after much deliberations by all the field operators, it was decided to be released to the general public considering that the margin of error is less than 5%.. Therefore it would be no surprise if Buhari is returned victorious after the February 23 presidential elections.
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